The subject of this presentation is the results of the forensic analyses performed by expert teams of The Hague Tribunal (“ICTY”) between 1995 and 2002 at several locations in the region of Eastern Bosnia during the exhumation and examination of human remains from thirteen locations that were presumed to contain the bodies of Srebrenica victims. ICTY Chief Investigator Jean-René Ruez confirmed under cross-examination at the Karadžić trial that, in the opinion of Prosecution investigators, the material on which our analysis is based constitutes all the available forensic evidence believed to be related to post-July 11, 1995 executions of prisoners in the Srebrenica area:
“This is the reason why the sites we have identified and that we later learned through analysis of captured documents of the Zvornik Brigade that we had in fact found all of the sites that had been used for the purpose of the extermination process of the prisoners, where the full number of them, since we found the logs of the drivers who on 13 July transported the security officers to these sites so that they could assess the detention facilities and identify nearby execution sites. We focused only on the graves where we had information that during the days of 14, 15, and 16 July people had been executed on these spots…” [1]
Autopsy examinations were performed on the remains of victims found in the following mass-grave sites: Glogova, Kozluk, Konjević Polje, Hodžići Road, Nova Kasaba, Pilica, Ravnice, Zeleni Jadar, Lažete, Cerska, Liplje, Dam and Čančari Road. At the outset, it would be useful to state the following: Richard Butler, the military expert for the Prosecution, after having been asked by the Defense in the Popović et al. case[2] whether it would be relevant to try to determine how many Muslims perished as a result of combat activity, replied:
“It would be relevant if the forensic evidence of mass graves were showing evidence that would reflect that the bodies in those graves reflected combat casualties. The forensic evidence, as I understand it, coming out of those mass graves reflects the opposite, that they are not combat casualties.” [3]
Nevertheless, Butler admitted later during the Defense cross-examination that it would be reasonable to assume that “between 1,000 and 2,000” Muslims could have died as a result of combat activity in the immediate aftermath of the fall of Srebrenica.[4] Indeed, a careful analysis of the forensic material that had been prepared by experts of the same Office of the Prosecutor where Butler also worked indicates that — contrary to Butler’s initial claim in Popović — a significant number of casualties demonstrably resulted from combat activity and, therefore, does not fit into the execution and war-crime scenario.
Hypothesis
This analysis of the forensic data is based on the following working hypothesis. Assuming that the prevalent view that about 8,000 prisoners of war were summarily shot in Srebrenica is correct, we should expect to find all or an overwhelming majority of the human remains in the various Srebrenica-related mass graves to exhibit a pattern of injury consistent with execution, at least whenever such a pattern is discernible. The objective of this analysis is to test this hypothesis. If the hypothesis is true, then we should reasonably expect to find a generally uniform pattern of injury that is broadly consistent with the theory of execution.
Source Material Used for the Purposes of This Analysis
A total of 3,568 cases were analyzed. They represent the sum total of all the material gathered by the Prosecution of The Hague Tribunal at thirteen different Srebrenica-related locations between 1995 and 2002.
Each of these locations is discussed separately, and the pertinent data for each is presented in the form of a graph.
The results were divided into nine classes of casualties:
Class 1: Bodies with a bullet in both the upper and the lower region.
Class 2: Bodies with a bullet only in the upper region.
Class 3: Bodies with a bullet only in the lower region.
Class 4: Bodies which, in addition to traces of bullets, also contain traces of various kinds of metal fragments.
Class 5: Bodies which contain only metal fragments of various kinds.
Class 6: Various body parts or bone fragments, i.e. cases in which the exhumed remains were not definable as a body and which, in some instances, relied on no more than a single bone.
Class 7: Incomplete bodies, i.e. autopsy reports which describe only the upper or lower region of the body or only the cranium.
Class 8: Bodies for which a cause of death could not be determined.
Class 9: Bodies with blindfolds and/or ligatures.[5]
We reiterate that our principal goal is to analyze and classify the findings of the forensic experts who had been engaged by the ICTY Office of the Prosecutor. These forensic specialists had direct access to the exhumed human remains that form the subject matter of these autopsy reports. When these reports state, for instance, that “the cause of death was not determined,” this is not a conclusion that had been independently reached by this author. This conclusion was drawn by The Hague Tribunal forensic experts who actually conducted the autopsies.
Glogova
Several mass graves were found at this location, some of which contained the remains of two to three bodies, while others contained a much larger number.
Almost all the mass graves at this location were exhumed during September and October 1999, with the exception of the mass grave denoted as Glogova 1, which was exhumed in May 2001.
As the following graph shows, the column representing “Various Body Parts Only” plays the dominant role. In a significant number of cases, five or fewer bones are involved. Taking into consideration that a human body is composed of over 200 bones, it is clear that such a small sample is insufficient for drawing any forensically significant conclusions (unless it involves cranial bones or others that shield vital organs, and unless the bones themselves do not exhibit injuries caused by bullets or other weapons). It is important to note that Prosecution experts themselves have been unable to determine the cause of death in 280 out of 295 cases at this location where only small body parts were found. Thirty-five bodies reveal traces of shrapnel, which unambiguously indicates that these persons died from the concussive impact of a grenade, mortar, or other heavy weapon. Blast wounds were the cause of death in thirty-two cases. It is also relevant that 53.3% of the Glogova material does not consist of complete bodies but only of body parts or bone fragments. Of that percentage, ICTY forensic experts could not determine the cause of death in 95% of the cases. When referring to incomplete bodies, the cause of death could not be determined in thirty-three cases; the cause of death was injury to the upper body region in eight cases, and lower body region injuries were cited as the cause of death in one case.
A total of fourteen bodies had blindfolds and/or ligatures, which may be interpreted as suggesting execution.
Kozluk
The Kozluk mass graves were exhumed in July, August, and September 1999.
Most of these cases consist only of body fragments, i.e. a total of 184 autopsy reports. Of this number, ICTY forensic experts could not determine the cause of death in 176 cases, which comprises more than 95.7% of the total. Here as well, it is important to note that 123 bodies were found with ligatures and/or blindfolds, which suggests that they were executed. The cause of death could not be determined in twenty-six out of thirty-two cases of incomplete bodies.
Konjević Polje
Exhumations were performed in September 1999.
Twelve bodies were found in the Konjević Polje mass grave. Most of them sustained injuries from bullets or from metal fragments of various kinds. It is highly likely, based on the nature and pattern of most of the injuries, that the bodies exhumed from this mass grave are those who perished during combat operations.
Hodžići Road
These mass graves were exhumed during September and October 1998.
As in Konjević Polje, fifty-five out of a total of 239 cases in the Body Parts category form the largest single group. The cause of death could not be determined in fifty-two of these fifty-five cases, or 94.5% of the total. The number of bodies with blindfolds and/or ligatures is forty-six out of 239. The cause of death could not be determined in thirteen of twenty-nine incomplete bodies.
Nova Kasaba
Exhumations took place in September 1999.
The human remains in Nova Kasaba exhibit a somewhat different picture with respect to the distribution of injuries. Here, the number of injuries caused by bullets and those that were caused by metal fragments of various kinds is about equal. Also notable is the number of whole bodies without any injuries or tissue damage, as a result of which no cause of death could be determined. The cause of death could also not be determined for the two incomplete bodies found at this location. There were no bodies with ligatures and/or blindfolds in this mass grave.
Pilica
This mass grave was exhumed in October 1996.
The Pilica-Branjevo farm is notable for the number of bodies with blindfolds and/or ligatures. They number 70, or 51% of the total number of cases examined here. The remaining cases are mainly body parts or incomplete bodies. The graph below shows that there are traces of bullet and various metal fragments, and there are two categories of bullet-related injuries in addition to the Incomplete Bodies category. The remainder did not exhibit any injuries at all so no cause of death could be determined. The cause of death could not be determined in twelve of the fifteen cases in which only a small body part or a few bones were involved.
Ravnice
Exhumations were twice carried out at this location, first in September 2000 and then in August and September 2001. This mass grave is characterized by the high number of cases in which only body parts were found. Two hundred and seventy-five out of a total of 495 autopsy reports refer to cases involving only a single body part. These proportions can easily be seen in the graph below. In order for the data to be viewed more clearly, this means that in 55% of the cases only one single body part, often just one or more bones, was found. Perhaps even more significantly, the cause of death could not be determined in 259 of 275 autopsy reports which involve only a few bones, or 94.2% of the cases. The cause of death could not be determined in seventeen of sixty-five cases that involved Incomplete Bodies. Injuries caused by a bullet were apparent in one hundred cases. The cause of death could not be determined in the cases of thirteen complete or almost complete bodies. Various metal fragments with or without bullets were found in forty-four cases, which is indicative of different kinds of weapons that were used. One ligature was also found at this location.
Zeleni Jadar
The Zeleni Jadar mass graves, which were exhumed in October 1998, also contain a significant number of autopsy reports based on a small number of bones. The percentage of cases where only a body part was found, e.g. a thigh or a foot, is 31.5%. The cause of death could not be determined in fifty-four out of a total of sixty-four cases where only a body part was located (84.3% of the total). The cause of death could not be determined in twenty-eight of fifty-eight cases of Incomplete Bodies. The cause of death could not be determined in two cases of ligatures nor in twelve cases of complete or almost complete bodies.
In forty-four cases, there were bullet injuries to the different parts of the body. The remaining twenty-three bodies exhibited injuries inflicted by various weapons, including mines and artillery shells.
Cerska
Exhumations were conducted at this location in July and August 1996. The total number of autopsy reports is 150, of which there are sixty-five cases in which bullet or bullet fragments were found.
The presence of bullets in a broad range of distribution characterizes these mass graves. In a vast number of cases, bullets were found in both the upper and lower extremities. Even in cases involving incomplete remains, it was possible to determine the cause of death by noting the presence of a bullet or bullet fragments. There is a total of thirty-three such autopsy reports referring to incomplete bodies in which the cause of death is injuries sustained by firearms to both the upper and lower extremities. Here we must also mention thirty-eight bodies that were found with blindfolds and/or ligatures, which indicates execution, as well as thirty-three bodies which were incomplete. In thirteen cases, in addition to the presence of bullets, different sorts of metal fragments that did not originate from a bullet were found.
Lažete
These exhumations were conducted in September 1996.
As reflected in the graph below, this mass grave is characterized by a high percentage of bodies with blindfolds and/or ligatures. There are sixty-seven such bodies (59.8% of the total). The remaining bodies exhibit injuries caused by a bullet to the upper or lower extremities.
Liplje
Exhumations in Liplje were conducted in September and October 1998. These mass graves are distinguished by the number of autopsy reports in which only one body part was found. Out of a total of 441 reports, 330 (74.8%) refer to body parts, while in seventy-three cases (17.5%), the body is incomplete. The cause of death could not be determined in 318 (96.4%) of the 330 cases that refer only to body parts. With regard to incomplete bodies, the cause of death could not be determined in fifty-three cases out of seventy-three such autopsy reports. The remaining twenty reports show an even distribution of fatal injuries inflicted by firearms to the upper and lower extremities, respectively.
Dam [Brana]
Mass graves in the vicinity of the Dam share the characteristics of the human remains exhumed in most of the previously discussed locations. The distinguishing feature of these mass graves is that the majority of the cases consist of just a few bones or small body parts. This applies to seventy-two out of ninety-one autopsy reports from this location. The cause of death could be determined in only three cases. In contrast to previous sites, we find here a new category of autopsy reports consisting of collections of fifty or more bones and bone fragments per “case” without any attempt at individual classification and, apparently, without a basis for valid evidentiary conclusions. These bones presumably belong to a variety of persons. There were eight such collective “cases.” In two cases, metal fragments were found that were not bullet related. The remaining nine cases were incomplete bodies. The exhumations were conducted in June 1998.[6]
Čančari Road
The Čančari Road mass graves also contain a high percentage of autopsy reports in which only a few bones were found. There are 285 such reports (50.6%) out of a total of 563. The cause of death could not be determined in 240 cases (84.2%) out of 285. There is also a high percentage of autopsy reports with incomplete bodies that total 129. Of these, in seventy-seven cases (60% of the total), the cause of death could not be determined. The remaining reports, in which the cause of death was determined, contain a high percentage of injuries inflicted by firearms. There were also fifty-six reports with blindfolds and/or ligatures, about 10% of the Čančari Road total.
Data summary
There is a total of 3,568 autopsy reports that were reviewed. That is the total number of autopsy reports available to the Prosecution of The Hague Tribunal and it was submitted into evidence in 2010. It must be pointed out that this figure represents 3,568 autopsy reports, which does not equal the same number of actual bodies. The principle is clear: one report does not equal one body. Almost 44.4% of the reports refer to only a body part, often just a single bone. That undoubtedly explains the inability of the Prosecution forensic specialists to determine the cause of death in a high percentage of these cases. Taking into consideration that the human body consists of over 200 bones, it is obvious why an autopsy report that refers to a few bone fragments is not synonymous with a body. The corollary is that the number of actual bodies may very well be far less than the number of autopsy reports. That is strongly suggested by the data breakdown for individual mass burial sites in the graph below.
These autopsy reports were divided into five groups to make the results analytically clear.
The first group consists of bodies and body parts that were found with blindfolds and/or ligatures.
The second group includes bodies that suffered injuries consistent with the impact resulting from bullets or bullet fragments. Such fatal injuries could have been inflicted either as a result of combat or execution.
The third group consists of bodies that did not have only injuries inflicted by bullets but also had metal projectile fragments (such as shrapnel from shells or mortars) as well as bodies that established the presence of various metal fragments only. The injuries sustained by this group are mostly consistent with combat activity.
The fourth group consists of incomplete bodies where no cause of death could be determined.
The fifth, and largest group, consists of autopsy reports where there were only a few body fragments, often just a single bone or a foot encased in a boot, a thigh, or the like. There are 1,583 (44.4% of the total) autopsy reports in this category out of the total of 3,568. This figure acquires even greater significance when it is taken into consideration that in 92.4% these reports in which only one single body part was found, the Tribunal forensic experts were unable to determine the cause of death.
The subject of this presentation is the results of the forensic analyses performed by expert teams of The Hague Tribunal (“ICTY”) between 1995 and 2002 at several locations in the region of Eastern Bosnia during the exhumation and examination of human remains from thirteen locations that were presumed to contain the bodies of Srebrenica victims. ICTY Chief Investigator Jean-René Ruez confirmed under cross-examination at the Karadžić trial that, in the opinion of Prosecution investigators, the material on which our analysis is based constitutes all the available forensic evidence believed to be related to post-July 11, 1995 executions of prisoners in the Srebrenica area:
This is the reason why the sites we have identified and that we later learned through analysis of captured documents of the Zvornik Brigade that we had in fact found all of the sites that had been used for the purpose of the extermination process of the prisoners, where the full number of them, since we found the logs of the drivers who on 13 July transported the security officers to these sites so that they could assess the detention facilities and identify nearby execution sites. We focused only on the graves where we had information that during the days of 14, 15, and 16 July people had been executed on these spots….[1]
Autopsy examinations were performed on the remains of victims found in the following mass-grave sites: Glogova, Kozluk, Konjević Polje, Hodžići Road, Nova Kasaba, Pilica, Ravnice, Zeleni Jadar, Lažete, Cerska, Liplje, Dam and Čančari Road. At the outset, it would be useful to state the following: Richard Butler, the military expert for the Prosecution, after having been asked by the Defense in the Popović et al. case[2] whether it would be relevant to try to determine how many Muslims perished as a result of combat activity, replied:
It would be relevant if the forensic evidence of mass graves were showing evidence that would reflect that the bodies in those graves reflected combat casualties. The forensic evidence, as I understand it, coming out of those mass graves reflects the opposite, that they are not combat casualties.[3]
Nevertheless, Butler admitted later during the Defense cross-examination that it would be reasonable to assume that “between 1,000 and 2,000” Muslims could have died as a result of combat activity in the immediate aftermath of the fall of Srebrenica.[4] Indeed, a careful analysis of the forensic material that had been prepared by experts of the same Office of the Prosecutor where Butler also worked indicates that — contrary to Butler’s initial claim in Popović — a significant number of casualties demonstrably resulted from combat activity and, therefore, does not fit into the execution and war-crime scenario.
Hypothesis
This analysis of the forensic data is based on the following working hypothesis. Assuming that the prevalent view that about 8,000 prisoners of war were summarily shot in Srebrenica is correct, we should expect to find all or an overwhelming majority of the human remains in the various Srebrenica-related mass graves to exhibit a pattern of injury consistent with execution, at least whenever such a pattern is discernible. The objective of this analysis is to test this hypothesis. If the hypothesis is true, then we should reasonably expect to find a generally uniform pattern of injury that is broadly consistent with the theory of execution.
Source Material Used for the Purposes of This Analysis
A total of 3,568 cases were analyzed. They represent the sum total of all the material gathered by the Prosecution of The Hague Tribunal at thirteen different Srebrenica-related locations between 1995 and 2002.
Each of these locations is discussed separately, and the pertinent data for each is presented in the form of a graph.
The results were divided into nine classes of casualties:
Class 1: Bodies with a bullet in both the upper and the lower region.
Class 2: Bodies with a bullet only in the upper region.
Class 3: Bodies with a bullet only in the lower region.
Class 4: Bodies which, in addition to traces of bullets, also contain traces of various kinds of metal fragments.
Class 5: Bodies which contain only metal fragments of various kinds.
Class 6: Various body parts or bone fragments, i.e. cases in which the exhumed remains were not definable as a body and which, in some instances, relied on no more than a single bone.
Class 7: Incomplete bodies, i.e. autopsy reports which describe only the upper or lower region of the body or only the cranium.
Class 8: Bodies for which a cause of death could not be determined.
Class 9: Bodies with blindfolds and/or ligatures.[5]
We reiterate that our principal goal is to analyze and classify the findings of the forensic experts who had been engaged by the ICTY Office of the Prosecutor. These forensic specialists had direct access to the exhumed human remains that form the subject matter of these autopsy reports. When these reports state, for instance, that “the cause of death was not determined,” this is not a conclusion that had been independently reached by this author. This conclusion was drawn by The Hague Tribunal forensic experts who actually conducted the autopsies.
Glogova
Several mass graves were found at this location, some of which contained the remains of two to three bodies, while others contained a much larger number.
Almost all the mass graves at this location were exhumed during September and October 1999, with the exception of the mass grave denoted as Glogova 1, which was exhumed in May 2001.
As the following graph shows, the column representing “Various Body Parts Only” plays the dominant role. In a significant number of cases, five or fewer bones are involved. Taking into consideration that a human body is composed of over 200 bones, it is clear that such a small sample is insufficient for drawing any forensically significant conclusions (unless it involves cranial bones or others that shield vital organs, and unless the bones themselves do not exhibit injuries caused by bullets or other weapons). It is important to note that Prosecution experts themselves have been unable to determine the cause of death in 280 out of 295 cases at this location where only small body parts were found. Thirty-five bodies reveal traces of shrapnel, which unambiguously indicates that these persons died from the concussive impact of a grenade, mortar, or other heavy weapon. Blast wounds were the cause of death in thirty-two cases. It is also relevant that 53.3% of the Glogova material does not consist of complete bodies but only of body parts or bone fragments. Of that percentage, ICTY forensic experts could not determine the cause of death in 95% of the cases. When referring to incomplete bodies, the cause of death could not be determined in thirty-three cases; the cause of death was injury to the upper body region in eight cases, and lower body region injuries were cited as the cause of death in one case.
A total of fourteen bodies had blindfolds and/or ligatures, which may be interpreted as suggesting execution.
Kozluk
The Kozluk mass graves were exhumed in July, August, and September 1999.
Most of these cases consist only of body fragments, i.e. a total of 184 autopsy reports. Of this number, ICTY forensic experts could not determine the cause of death in 176 cases, which comprises more than 95.7% of the total. Here as well, it is important to note that 123 bodies were found with ligatures and/or blindfolds, which suggests that they were executed. The cause of death could not be determined in twenty-six out of thirty-two cases of incomplete bodies.
Konjević Polje
Exhumations were performed in September 1999.
Twelve bodies were found in the Konjević Polje mass grave. Most of them sustained injuries from bullets or from metal fragments of various kinds. It is highly likely, based on the nature and pattern of most of the injuries, that the bodies exhumed from this mass grave are those who perished during combat operations.
Hodžići Road
These mass graves were exhumed during September and October 1998.
As in Konjević Polje, fifty-five out of a total of 239 cases in the Body Parts category form the largest single group. The cause of death could not be determined in fifty-two of these fifty-five cases, or 94.5% of the total. The number of bodies with blindfolds and/or ligatures is forty-six out of 239. The cause of death could not be determined in thirteen of twenty-nine incomplete bodies.
Nova Kasaba
Exhumations took place in September 1999.
The human remains in Nova Kasaba exhibit a somewhat different picture with respect to the distribution of injuries. Here, the number of injuries caused by bullets and those that were caused by metal fragments of various kinds is about equal. Also notable is the number of whole bodies without any injuries or tissue damage, as a result of which no cause of death could be determined. The cause of death could also not be determined for the two incomplete bodies found at this location. There were no bodies with ligatures and/or blindfolds in this mass grave.
Pilica
This mass grave was exhumed in October 1996.
The Pilica-Branjevo farm is notable for the number of bodies with blindfolds and/or ligatures. They number 70, or 51% of the total number of cases examined here. The remaining cases are mainly body parts or incomplete bodies. The graph below shows that there are traces of bullet and various metal fragments, and there are two categories of bullet-related injuries in addition to the Incomplete Bodies category. The remainder did not exhibit any injuries at all so no cause of death could be determined. The cause of death could not be determined in twelve of the fifteen cases in which only a small body part or a few bones were involved.
Ravnice
Exhumations were twice carried out at this location, first in September 2000 and then in August and September 2001. This mass grave is characterized by the high number of cases in which only body parts were found. Two hundred and seventy-five out of a total of 495 autopsy reports refer to cases involving only a single body part. These proportions can easily be seen in the graph below. In order for the data to be viewed more clearly, this means that in 55% of the cases only one single body part, often just one or more bones, was found. Perhaps even more significantly, the cause of death could not be determined in 259 of 275 autopsy reports which involve only a few bones, or 94.2% of the cases. The cause of death could not be determined in seventeen of sixty-five cases that involved Incomplete Bodies. Injuries caused by a bullet were apparent in one hundred cases. The cause of death could not be determined in the cases of thirteen complete or almost complete bodies. Various metal fragments with or without bullets were found in forty-four cases, which is indicative of different kinds of weapons that were used. One ligature was also found at this location.
Zeleni Jadar
The Zeleni Jadar mass graves, which were exhumed in October 1998, also contain a significant number of autopsy reports based on a small number of bones. The percentage of cases where only a body part was found, e.g. a thigh or a foot, is 31.5%. The cause of death could not be determined in fifty-four out of a total of sixty-four cases where only a body part was located (84.3% of the total). The cause of death could not be determined in twenty-eight of fifty-eight cases of Incomplete Bodies. The cause of death could not be determined in two cases of ligatures nor in twelve cases of complete or almost complete bodies.
In forty-four cases, there were bullet injuries to the different parts of the body. The remaining twenty-three bodies exhibited injuries inflicted by various weapons, including mines and artillery shells.
Cerska
Exhumations were conducted at this location in July and August 1996. The total number of autopsy reports is 150, of which there are sixty-five cases in which bullet or bullet fragments were found.
The presence of bullets in a broad range of distribution characterizes these mass graves. In a vast number of cases, bullets were found in both the upper and lower extremities. Even in cases involving incomplete remains, it was possible to determine the cause of death by noting the presence of a bullet or bullet fragments. There is a total of thirty-three such autopsy reports referring to incomplete bodies in which the cause of death is injuries sustained by firearms to both the upper and lower extremities. Here we must also mention thirty-eight bodies that were found with blindfolds and/or ligatures, which indicates execution, as well as thirty-three bodies which were incomplete. In thirteen cases, in addition to the presence of bullets, different sorts of metal fragments that did not originate from a bullet were found.
Lažete
These exhumations were conducted in September 1996.
As reflected in the graph below, this mass grave is characterized by a high percentage of bodies with blindfolds and/or ligatures. There are sixty-seven such bodies (59.8% of the total). The remaining bodies exhibit injuries caused by a bullet to the upper or lower extremities.
Liplje
Exhumations in Liplje were conducted in September and October 1998. These mass graves are distinguished by the number of autopsy reports in which only one body part was found. Out of a total of 441 reports, 330 (74.8%) refer to body parts, while in seventy-three cases (17.5%), the body is incomplete. The cause of death could not be determined in 318 (96.4%) of the 330 cases that refer only to body parts. With regard to incomplete bodies, the cause of death could not be determined in fifty-three cases out of seventy-three such autopsy reports. The remaining twenty reports show an even distribution of fatal injuries inflicted by firearms to the upper and lower extremities, respectively.
Dam [Brana]
Mass graves in the vicinity of the Dam share the characteristics of the human remains exhumed in most of the previously discussed locations. The distinguishing feature of these mass graves is that the majority of the cases consist of just a few bones or small body parts. This applies to seventy-two out of ninety-one autopsy reports from this location. The cause of death could be determined in only three cases. In contrast to previous sites, we find here a new category of autopsy reports consisting of collections of fifty or more bones and bone fragments per “case” without any attempt at individual classification and, apparently, without a basis for valid evidentiary conclusions. These bones presumably belong to a variety of persons. There were eight such collective “cases.” In two cases, metal fragments were found that were not bullet related. The remaining nine cases were incomplete bodies. The exhumations were conducted in June 1998.[6]
Čančari Road
The Čančari Road mass graves also contain a high percentage of autopsy reports in which only a few bones were found. There are 285 such reports (50.6%) out of a total of 563. The cause of death could not be determined in 240 cases (84.2%) out of 285. There is also a high percentage of autopsy reports with incomplete bodies that total 129. Of these, in seventy-seven cases (60% of the total), the cause of death could not be determined. The remaining reports, in which the cause of death was determined, contain a high percentage of injuries inflicted by firearms. There were also fifty-six reports with blindfolds and/or ligatures, about 10% of the Čančari Road total.
Data summary
There is a total of 3,568 autopsy reports that were reviewed. That is the total number of autopsy reports available to the Prosecution of The Hague Tribunal and it was submitted into evidence in 2010. It must be pointed out that this figure represents 3,568 autopsy reports, which does not equal the same number of actual bodies. The principle is clear: one report does not equal one body. Almost 44.4% of the reports refer to only a body part, often just a single bone. That undoubtedly explains the inability of the Prosecution forensic specialists to determine the cause of death in a high percentage of these cases. Taking into consideration that the human body consists of over 200 bones, it is obvious why an autopsy report that refers to a few bone fragments is not synonymous with a body. The corollary is that the number of actual bodies may very well be far less than the number of autopsy reports. That is strongly suggested by the data breakdown for individual mass burial sites in the graph below.
These autopsy reports were divided into five groups to make the results analytically clear.
The first group consists of bodies and body parts that were found with blindfolds and/or ligatures.
The second group includes bodies that suffered injuries consistent with the impact resulting from bullets or bullet fragments. Such fatal injuries could have been inflicted either as a result of combat or execution.
The third group consists of bodies that did not have only injuries inflicted by bullets but also had metal projectile fragments (such as shrapnel from shells or mortars) as well as bodies that established the presence of various metal fragments only. The injuries sustained by this group are mostly consistent with combat activity.
The fourth group consists of incomplete bodies where no cause of death could be determined.
The fifth, and largest group, consists of autopsy reports where there were only a few body fragments, often just a single bone or a foot encased in a boot, a thigh, or the like. There are 1,583 (44.4% of the total) autopsy reports in this category out of the total of 3,568. This figure acquires even greater significance when it is taken into consideration that in 92.4% these reports in which only one single body part was found, the Tribunal forensic experts were unable to determine the cause of death.
Discussion
The following professionally responsible conclusions, based on the autopsy reports that were reviewed and on the breakdown of the data, may be drawn about the manner and causes of death of these victims:
- The first group consists of 442 bodies on or about which blindfolds and/or ligatures were found. That indicates that those persons may have been executed.
- There are 655 cases in which autopsy reports indicate that the fatal injuries had been inflicted by bullets. It is impossible to conclude based on this alone whether the victims had been executed or killed in combat or whether death was the consequence of some other cause, e.g. suicide. However, based on a close pattern of injury analysis (as noted in the Prosecution autopsy reports), it may be said with a high degree of certainty that death was not caused by a gunshot in about 150 of these cases. The reason for this conclusion is the peculiar characteristics of the pattern of injury reported in these cases. The extent of bone damage and the pronounced bone fragmentation are more consistent with the impact of a projectile launched from a “Praga”[7] or a similar weapon than with the impact of an ordinary bullet.[8]
- It would be reasonable to conclude with respect to 477 of the victims that they were not executed because autopsy reports indicate the presence of shrapnel and other metal fragments which are not bullet-related or have not been reliably established as bullet-related injuries. Such a pattern of injury is more consistent with combat activity, e.g. the breakout of the 28th Division column from Srebrenica to Tuzla, rather than with execution as the probable cause of death.
- It was impossible to determine for 411 bodies whether death was due to execution or some other cause because those bodies and the forensic information associated with them were incomplete. Also in this group are bodies which did not exhibit traces of projectiles of any kind, and for this reason, as well, the cause of death could not be determined.
- The last, and largest single group, totaling 1,583 cases, consists of autopsy reports which refer to only a few bones. Based on such reports, it is impossible to draw any forensically significant conclusions, all the more so since no trauma is noted in a high percentage of them. This view is confirmed by the fact that Prosecution forensic experts could not determine a cause of death in 92.4% of the cases in this category.
The initial hypothesis, derived from the prevalent view of the events that took place in Srebrenica, was that all or most of the exhumed remains would exhibit a pattern of injury consistent with execution. This has not been confirmed. Instead of the anticipated uniformity, there is, in fact, a great deal of diversity in the patterns of injury. This is consistent with the existence of more than one single predominant explanation for the fatal outcome.
Control Analysis
Although these results are clear, we thought that it would be in the general interest of our inquiry and conducive to clarity to conduct a parallel or control analysis because the previous procedure did not give a definitive answer to the total number of victims in the Srebrenica-related mass graves. Because of the enormous number of autopsy reports which are based on only a small number of bones, we sought another convenient way to cross-check the results. We, therefore, decided to conduct an additional analysis. Our basic objective was to establish, as reliably as possible, the total number of bodies in the mass graves which were exhumed by ICTY Prosecution forensic experts for which they composed autopsy reports, and which were ultimately submitted into evidence to form the basis for several ICTY court decisions about the total number of Srebrenica war-crime victims. Once we have a fairly reliable total figure of victims, we can then proceed with an enhanced degree of confidence to contemplate the actual dimensions of the Srebrenica tragedy, including both those who were probably executed as well as those who were probably killed in combat.
Initially, we thought of using the total number of craniums and femurs to establish a parameter. Since the craniums were smashed or fragmented in a significant number of cases, sometimes into more than 20 individual pieces, that approach proved impractical and was abandoned. We then concentrated on counting the femurs.[9] In the course of our research, we counted all the right and left femurs, as well as femur fragments whenever it was possible to determine whether they belonged to the right or the left femur bone.
It was not possible to determine for a small number of femur fragments (a total of twenty-eight) whether they belonged to the right or the left femur bone due to their insufficient size.
As the attached table demonstrates, control results are broadly consistent with the results of the preceding analysis, although they were reached using a different approach. Both approaches yield a total of fewer than 2,000 bodies in the thirteen Srebrenica-related mass graves, in this case between 1,919 and 1,923.
We stress that this total figure of victims for all Srebrenica mass graves includes the key categories of those who were executed and those who were killed in combat. Thus, the thesis we advance in our main study,[10] that a considerable number of these autopsy reports (44.4%) which involve only bone fragments cannot legitimately be treated as corresponding to an equivalent number of bodies, now stands fully corroborated. To repeat, the number of autopsy reports which pertain only to bone fragments is 1,583. When we subtract 1,583 from the total number of “cases” (3,568) for which Tribunal forensic experts have created autopsy reports, we are left with about 1,985 bodies in various states of completeness. This coincides within acceptable parameters with the results of our control analysis, which, relying on the count of femur bones, yields a range between 1,919 and 1,923 casualties from all causes in Srebrenica-related mass graves.
| Mass grave | Right Femur | Left Femur | Bone Fragment |
| Liplje | 131 | 131 | 4 |
| Ravnice | 221 | 224 | 1 |
| Glogova | 275 | 273 | 2 |
| Čančari road | 233 | 240 | 3 |
| Kozluk | 318 | 315 | 0 |
| Hodžići road | 155 | 156 | 2 |
| Cerska | 146 | 146 | 0 |
| Nova Kasaba | 56 | 56 | 0 |
| Lažete | 110 | 110 | 0 |
| Pilica | 115 | 115 | 0 |
| Zeleni Jadar | 116 | 113 | 1 |
| Dam (Brana) | 31 | 32 | 15 |
| Konjević Polje | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Total Femur Bones | 1,919 | 1,923 | 28 |
[1]. Prosecutor v. Karadžić, February 1, 1995, Transcript, p. 23983, lines 20-25 and 23984, lines 1-5. This is a clarification of extraordinary significance. It explains why ICTY Prosecution forensic investigators terminated their operations at the end of 2001 when they ran out of mass graves suspected of being related to extrajudicial executions in Srebrenica. It also raises serious questions about the character of subsequent exhumations carried out by ICMP and the Bosnian Institute for Missing Persons. The geographical scope of this operation, which is still in progress, coincides remarkably with the route followed by the Bosnian Army’s 28th Division, a legitimate military target, during its breakout from Srebrenica. The specific sites within the scope of the ICTY forensic teams investigation are referred to by Ruez, ibid., p. 23997–23998.
[2]. Popović et al was the third multiple-defendant Srebrenica-related trial, which focused mainly on military security service officers and high-level field commanders. The trial judgment was announced on June 10, 2010. The judgment and related legal documents may be found at: http://www.icty.org/case/popovic/4#tjug
[3]. Popović et al., 23 January, 2008, Transcript 20250.
[4]. Ibid., Transcript 20251, lines 6-8. Subsequently, at the Jević Srebrenica war crimes trial in Sarajevo (September 19, 2011), Butler increased his estimate of Muslim combat casualties to between 2,000 and 4,000.
[5]. There is a controversy with respect to blindfolds. It is commonly known, and numerous photographs taken by both sides during the conflict amply confirm it, that Serbian and Muslim combatants had the habit of wearing bandanas on their heads for religious and/or identification purposes. This obviously raises the issue of a possible confusion between the one and the other in the exhumation process. Dr. William Haglund, director of the ICTY Prosecution forensic team which had exhumed Srebrenica-related mass graves, said under cross-examination by Radovan Karadžić that he “did not know” whether he could discern the difference between a blindfold and a bandana during the examination of exhumed mortal remains and that he “just assumed that they were blindfolds next to people” (Prosecutor v. Karadžić, 31 January, 2012, Transcript, p. 23947-23948).
[6]. Prosecution forensic team archaeologist Richard Wright confirmed the general situation at the Dam: “there were no complete bodies … there were isolated bones” (Prosecution v. Karadžić, Transcript, p. 22262, lines 12-13).
[7]. The Praga M53/59 is a 30mm double-barreled anti-aircraft cannon that was deployed as an anti-personnel weapon during the Bosnian War.
[8]. For example, cranial perforations greater than 10 cm or fragmentation of the scapula with the fracture of six ribs. In forensic terminology, injuries such as these are characterized as “burst out” wounds which, in most cases, would rule out an ordinary bullet. For evidence of the use of high velocity projectiles, see Chapter VI, “Analysis of Srebrenica Forensic Reports Prepared by ICTY Prosecution Experts”.
[9]. Reliance on femur bones as a method of counting the probable number of persons in a mass grave was admitted by Prosecution forensic anthropologist Jose Pablo Baraybar in evidence he presented at the Karadžić trial: see Prosecution Rule 65 ter Summary, Transcript, p. 22342, lines 1-6.
[10]. See Chapter VI, “Analysis of Srebrenica Forensic Reports Prepared by ICTY Prosecution Experts.”
Discussion
The following professionally responsible conclusions, based on the autopsy reports that were reviewed and on the breakdown of the data, may be drawn about the manner and causes of death of these victims:
- The first group consists of 442 bodies on or about which blindfolds and/or ligatures were found. That indicates that those persons may have been executed.
- There are 655 cases in which autopsy reports indicate that the fatal injuries had been inflicted by bullets. It is impossible to conclude based on this alone whether the victims had been executed or killed in combat or whether death was the consequence of some other cause, e.g. suicide. However, based on a close pattern of injury analysis (as noted in the Prosecution autopsy reports), it may be said with a high degree of certainty that death was not caused by a gunshot in about 150 of these cases. The reason for this conclusion is the peculiar characteristics of the pattern of injury reported in these cases. The extent of bone damage and the pronounced bone fragmentation are more consistent with the impact of a projectile launched from a “Praga”[7] or a similar weapon than with the impact of an ordinary bullet.[8]
- It would be reasonable to conclude with respect to 477 of the victims that they were not executed because autopsy reports indicate the presence of shrapnel and other metal fragments which are not bullet-related or have not been reliably established as bullet-related injuries. Such a pattern of injury is more consistent with combat activity, e.g. the breakout of the 28th Division column from Srebrenica to Tuzla, rather than with execution as the probable cause of death.
- It was impossible to determine for 411 bodies whether death was due to execution or some other cause because those bodies and the forensic information associated with them were incomplete. Also in this group are bodies which did not exhibit traces of projectiles of any kind, and for this reason, as well, the cause of death could not be determined.
- The last, and largest single group, totaling 1,583 cases, consists of autopsy reports which refer to only a few bones. Based on such reports, it is impossible to draw any forensically significant conclusions, all the more so since no trauma is noted in a high percentage of them. This view is confirmed by the fact that Prosecution forensic experts could not determine a cause of death in 92.4% of the cases in this category.
The initial hypothesis, derived from the prevalent view of the events that took place in Srebrenica, was that all or most of the exhumed remains would exhibit a pattern of injury consistent with execution. This has not been confirmed. Instead of the anticipated uniformity, there is, in fact, a great deal of diversity in the patterns of injury. This is consistent with the existence of more than one single predominant explanation for the fatal outcome.
Control Analysis
Although these results are clear, we thought that it would be in the general interest of our inquiry and conducive to clarity to conduct a parallel or control analysis because the previous procedure did not give a definitive answer to the total number of victims in the Srebrenica-related mass graves. Because of the enormous number of autopsy reports which are based on only a small number of bones, we sought another convenient way to cross-check the results. We, therefore, decided to conduct an additional analysis. Our basic objective was to establish, as reliably as possible, the total number of bodies in the mass graves which were exhumed by ICTY Prosecution forensic experts for which they composed autopsy reports, and which were ultimately submitted into evidence to form the basis for several ICTY court decisions about the total number of Srebrenica war-crime victims. Once we have a fairly reliable total figure of victims, we can then proceed with an enhanced degree of confidence to contemplate the actual dimensions of the Srebrenica tragedy, including both those who were probably executed as well as those who were probably killed in combat.
Initially, we thought of using the total number of craniums and femurs to establish a parameter. Since the craniums were smashed or fragmented in a significant number of cases, sometimes into more than 20 individual pieces, that approach proved impractical and was abandoned. We then concentrated on counting the femurs.[9] In the course of our research, we counted all the right and left femurs, as well as femur fragments whenever it was possible to determine whether they belonged to the right or the left femur bone.
It was not possible to determine for a small number of femur fragments (a total of twenty-eight) whether they belonged to the right or the left femur bone due to their insufficient size.
As the attached table demonstrates, control results are broadly consistent with the results of the preceding analysis, although they were reached using a different approach. Both approaches yield a total of fewer than 2,000 bodies in the thirteen Srebrenica-related mass graves, in this case between 1,919 and 1,923.
We stress that this total figure of victims for all Srebrenica mass graves includes the key categories of those who were executed and those who were killed in combat. Thus, the thesis we advance in our main study,[10] that a considerable number of these autopsy reports (44.4%) which involve only bone fragments cannot legitimately be treated as corresponding to an equivalent number of bodies, now stands fully corroborated. To repeat, the number of autopsy reports which pertain only to bone fragments is 1,583. When we subtract 1,583 from the total number of “cases” (3,568) for which Tribunal forensic experts have created autopsy reports, we are left with about 1,985 bodies in various states of completeness. This coincides within acceptable parameters with the results of our control analysis, which, relying on the count of femur bones, yields a range between 1,919 and 1,923 casualties from all causes in Srebrenica-related mass graves.
| Mass grave | Right Femur | Left Femur | Bone Fragment |
| Liplje | 131 | 131 | 4 |
| Ravnice | 221 | 224 | 1 |
| Glogova | 275 | 273 | 2 |
| Čančari road | 233 | 240 | 3 |
| Kozluk | 318 | 315 | 0 |
| Hodžići road | 155 | 156 | 2 |
| Cerska | 146 | 146 | 0 |
| Nova Kasaba | 56 | 56 | 0 |
| Lažete | 110 | 110 | 0 |
| Pilica | 115 | 115 | 0 |
| Zeleni Jadar | 116 | 113 | 1 |
| Dam (Brana) | 31 | 32 | 15 |
| Konjević Polje | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Total Femur Bones | 1,919 | 1,923 | 28 |
Endnotes:
[1]. Prosecutor v. Karadžić, February 1, 1995, Transcript, p. 23983, lines 20-25 and 23984, lines 1-5. This is a clarification of extraordinary significance. It explains why ICTY Prosecution forensic investigators terminated their operations at the end of 2001 when they ran out of mass graves suspected of being related to extrajudicial executions in Srebrenica. It also raises serious questions about the character of subsequent exhumations carried out by ICMP and the Bosnian Institute for Missing Persons. The geographical scope of this operation, which is still in progress, coincides remarkably with the route followed by the Bosnian Army’s 28th Division, a legitimate military target, during its breakout from Srebrenica. The specific sites within the scope of the ICTY forensic teams investigation are referred to by Ruez, ibid., p. 23997–23998.
[2]. Popović et al was the third multiple-defendant Srebrenica-related trial, which focused mainly on military security service officers and high-level field commanders. The trial judgment was announced on June 10, 2010. The judgment and related legal documents may be found at: http://www.icty.org/case/popovic/4#tjug
[3]. Popović et al., 23 January, 2008, Transcript 20250.
[4]. Ibid., Transcript 20251, lines 6-8. Subsequently, at the Jević Srebrenica war crimes trial in Sarajevo (September 19, 2011), Butler increased his estimate of Muslim combat casualties to between 2,000 and 4,000.
[5]. There is a controversy with respect to blindfolds. It is commonly known, and numerous photographs taken by both sides during the conflict amply confirm it, that Serbian and Muslim combatants had the habit of wearing bandanas on their heads for religious and/or identification purposes. This obviously raises the issue of a possible confusion between the one and the other in the exhumation process. Dr. William Haglund, director of the ICTY Prosecution forensic team which had exhumed Srebrenica-related mass graves, said under cross-examination by Radovan Karadžić that he “did not know” whether he could discern the difference between a blindfold and a bandana during the examination of exhumed mortal remains and that he “just assumed that they were blindfolds next to people” (Prosecutor v. Karadžić, 31 January, 2012, Transcript, p. 23947-23948).
[6]. Prosecution forensic team archaeologist Richard Wright confirmed the general situation at the Dam: “there were no complete bodies … there were isolated bones” (Prosecution v. Karadžić, Transcript, p. 22262, lines 12-13).
[7]. The Praga M53/59 is a 30mm double-barreled anti-aircraft cannon that was deployed as an anti-personnel weapon during the Bosnian War.
[8]. For example, cranial perforations greater than 10 cm or fragmentation of the scapula with the fracture of six ribs. In forensic terminology, injuries such as these are characterized as “burst out” wounds which, in most cases, would rule out an ordinary bullet. For evidence of the use of high velocity projectiles, see Chapter VI, “Analysis of Srebrenica Forensic Reports Prepared by ICTY Prosecution Experts”.
[9]. Reliance on femur bones as a method of counting the probable number of persons in a mass grave was admitted by Prosecution forensic anthropologist Jose Pablo Baraybar in evidence he presented at the Karadžić trial: see Prosecution Rule 65 ter Summary, Transcript, p. 22342, lines 1-6.
[10]. See Chapter VI, “Analysis of Srebrenica Forensic Reports Prepared by ICTY Prosecution Experts.”