The important issue of how many Srebrenica enclave residents survived the UN-protected zone’s fall to Serbian forces on July 11, 1995, has been left largely unexamined. Yet, that could provide important clues about the possible number of victims by subtracting the number of survivors from a reliably estimated number of total residents. The general consensus of ICTY chambers which pronounced themselves on the issue is that about 40,000 people were living in the Srebrenica enclave at the time of its fall. (See Krstić Appelate Chamber finding, pars. 15 and 37, which subsequent ICTY Srebrenica judgments have echoed.) There are two mutually consistent refugee count documents created in the immediate aftermath of July 11, one by the World Health Organization dated July 29, 1995, and the other by the UN dated August 4, 1995, which reflect the Srebrenica refugee count as established by these international organizations. They are mutually consistent because the chronologically later document reflects a slight rise in the number of refugees, which is logical if one assumes that additional stragglers kept reaching Sarajevo-controlled territory since the July 29 WHO count. To that should be added the letter, dated 24 October, 1995, by the Defense Minister of the Netherlands, J. J. C. Voorhoeve, directed to the then ICTY chief prosecutor, Richard Goldstone, calling his attention to these statistical matters with a view to assisting the Tribunal to “determine the number of missing and executed men from Srebrenica.” All three documents originate from ICTY evidence files and are properly marked with ICTY file numbers. If the figure of 35,632 refugees to which Voorhoeve makes reference three months after the Srebrenica massacre is valid, the contention of 7,000 to 8,000 victims of execution would be difficult to sustain. That is particularly the case because the considerable legitimate combat casualties of the 28th Division as it conducted its breakout from Srebrenica would also have to be accounted for within the probable 4,500 total figure of persons missing from all causes.
july 29, 1995, WHO refugee count:
WHO Srebrenica refugee count 290795
August 4, 1995, UN refugee count:
UN Srebrenica refugee count 040895
Netherlands Defense Minister Voorhoeve’s letter to Prosecutor Goldstone:
Dutch DM letter to Goldstone confirming refugee headcount